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Sunday, July 20, 2014

Weekend observations

Well,I was stopped out on my SPXS positions. The S&P was obviously not ready or it's marking out a Flat wave structure.The 1998-2018 area is another good place for a turn,but that area is harmonic to a  larger wave (iii) with deeper implications.

The topping of markets is a process not an multi-day event and normally weaker markets will start rolling over with some marking the new highs it wants. I would expect the Micro-caps and the small caps to do so first and then other market Indicies to follow.The Russell Retraced to exactly 50% of a previous a/b sub wave on the intraday charts. If I'm correct then the Russell will have to close above 1170 to be Bullish again.

The NYSE A/D is divergent with several other Indicies such as the S&P ,indicating deterioration in the back ground. This can be rectified but needs to be watched closely.

NATGAS has closed .01 cents below a previous -b- wave@ 3.95,next wave ii support is at 3.38 and theres a previous cloud support@ 3.60.

Gold needs to hold above 1290 or 1180-90 will be revisited. Tom McClellan has an interesting Timing article at his web site,pointing to mid August as the Low. Thats in line with the seasonals and also a Gann Square cycle Timing of August 15. From an HEW wave perspective there was a High yet to be marked at around 1353 or so before another retrace lower.

Coffee had an 5.22% rise off of touching a previous Cloud/Fib support level.There is a clean 5 wave count and close above $1.85 will probably confirm the move.The I-Cloud resistance level is at $1.9250. The Full stochastic is on a Buy and watch for the KST to clear the ZLR.

I'm also back to keeping an eye on URA-uranium as August approaches as this is also seasonal, albeit over the past few years it's been a POP and DROP scenario. The Weekly charts have an interesting Fractal Pattern as well. The pop and drops are a Pattern in a cycle with the Highs coming in lower with each wave form.I'm currently researching this pattern for I know I have seen it before.

Best Wishes

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